Earlier this year, Peru was affected by coastal El Nino (which could be considered the “little brother” of the global version of the phenomenon). Heavy rainfall led to flooding affecting hundreds of thousands of people and almost 50,000 homes being destroyed or becoming uninhabitable. The flooding led to historical rates of dengue fever, a mosquito-borne disease. As a result, 20 out of 25 departments declared a health emergency.
Last week, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) confirmed that this year will see another global El Niño happening. This is a risk to all of us: individuals, businesses, communities, and economies. It may accelerate the increase of global temperatures, unlocking myriad other effects. We cannot avoid it, but we can prepare for it and try to reduce just how badly we are affected by it.
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a phenomenon whereby the warming of the Pacific Ocean interacts with the atmosphere, causing an increased risk of flooding, variable rainfall patterns, dry conditions leading to severe drought, and the potential for more intense cyclones and typhoons. According to the WMO, it typically happens on average every two to seven years, and episodes tend to last nine to 12 months. The most recent significant El Nino event occurred in 2015-2016, which contributed to it being one of the hottest years on record.
Beyond extreme weather conditions, El Niño historically leads to impacts such as:
- high rates of food insecurity due to lower crop production and yields
- water stress
- higher risk of bush fires, for example in Indonesia and Australia
- changes in ocean temperature which can lead to coral bleaching and lower fish populations
- more diseases especially vector-borne ones (i.e., diseases transmitted by mosquitoes) such as dengue fever
- greater global temperatures overall
However, every El Niño is different, so the best we can do is prepare for extreme weather conditions and hope to mitigate its impact on sectors such as agriculture, water resources and on vulnerable groups, especially women and children.
Why this matters for businesses and industries
Here are a few reasons why businesses and industries should care about El Niño:
- Crises increase business risk: US data suggests that some 40% of businesses do not reopen after a disaster, another 25% fail within one year, and 90% fail within two years of being struck by a disaster.
- Flooding and other extreme weather events: In July 2021, floods happened across the globe, generating an estimated USD 43 billion in damages in Europe alone, displacing more than 700,000 people in Sudan, and disrupting coal transport, aluminium production and iPhone production in China. That means the physical infrastructure of businesses as well as supply and value chains are at risk.
- Infrastructure damage: Extreme weather events may affect roads, the electricity grid, and other critical infrastructure, which can lead to transportation issues among others. These may impact staff getting to work, or the movement of goods or services.
- Water Stress: In 2016, the Caribbean experienced severe drought and emergency rationing, and 65% of Antigua’s farmers went out of business. Water is an important factor for many industrial and agricultural processes, and even if water rationing due to shortages would not affect business, employees needing to find water for themselves and their families might.
- High food prices: Building on poor agricultural production and crops being affected or destroyed by extreme weather conditions, food prices are likely to rise. As we saw with the rising of the price of grain due to the war on Ukraine, this may lead to food crises and social unrest. That’s never good for business.
What businesses and industries can do to prepare for the potential impacts of El Niño
Two areas of focus are key to prepare for El Niño: contingency plans and preparedness measures. However, these must go beyond individual or industry-level actions. It’s essential for businesses and industry associations to coordinate contingency plans and preparedness measures with governments.
In the Philippines, for example, the Government revived the El Niño Task Force and will be working closely with the Philippine Disaster Resilience Foundation. Areas of focus will include water conservation measures as well as educating people about El Niño and its impacts.
In Peru, Hombro a Hombro has been working on family emergency plans to foster a culture of preparedness. In parallel, it has also been working with the Government to provide aid in hard-to-reach areas affected by the heavy rainfall and floods earlier this year. To prepare for what is to come, Hombro a Hombro will coordinate private sector support in three areas: logistics, capacity-building, and provision of heavy machinery.
Beyond that, businesses and partners can promote awareness on the impact of El Niño, for instance by organizing briefings for the business community and leaders.
Individual businesses can also develop an emergency preparedness plan and a business continuity plan to ensure that they are ready to deal with whatever happens (or almost!).
Not convinced? You can take this five-minute quiz to find out whether your business is ready for any natural or man-made disaster, developed by the United States Chamber of Commerce Foundation and the UPS Foundation. You can also sign up for our free online course on business continuity planning.
Businesses can look into insurance, or double check to see whether your insurance covers you for risks such as landslides, floods, and wildfires (or whatever is appropriate given the risk profile for relevant location(s)).
When it comes to larger businesses and multinationals, you can also support your broader network – including your value and supply chain partners – to ensure that they too are prepared. This will reduce their risk of seeing operations interrupted by a crisis, and thereby reduce your risk, too.
Finally, you can connect with your local or national business network, federation, or chamber of commerce. They often offer support when it comes to business continuity planning and emergency preparedness.
That way, you can go from worrying about your business to contributing to community and societal resilience through your business.
What the Connecting Business initiative is doing to prepare for the impact of El Niño
At the Connecting Business initiative (CBi), a joint programme between the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), we focus on engaging the private sector in disaster preparedness, response, and recovery.
When it comes to El Niño, we are developing a Community of Practice for our partners and the extended CBi family, to share good practices around preparedness and early action for El Niño. If this is something you would be interested in joining, please reach out to us by email on connectingbusiness@un.org or through social media (we’re on Twitter, LinkedIn, and Facebook).